The Economy is not the Market

I hear a lot of people confusing the U.S. economy with the U.S. stock market. For example, two gentlemen at my gym were talking and one said, "The economy sure is unstable with these 200 point gains and losses." The other responded, "Yes, I sure wish it would recover." To a finance geek like myself, this conversation is part funny (ha, ha, he thinks the economy is the market)and part scary (so do a lot of people).

The economy is a broad collection of factors related to the production of goods and services. Its health is typically measured by economic growth (or recession) numbers, which by the way, tend to be backward looking. When measuring the real economic growth rate, we're looking at the nation's GDP (gross domestic product) from one period to another. GDP is made of of consumption (C), government spending (G), investments (I) and net exports (exports minus imports, NX). In fact, G=C+G+I-NX. (Note that I should not be confused with the stock market -- it is the measure of business spending on capital.)

The stock market is made of up of shares of publicly traded companies -- i.e., those who have sold stock to finance their businesses. The return for investing in companies is return on the investment, or the share price rising due to higher valuation. There are many different markets -- for example, based on company size (i.e., Nasdaq for smaller) or nation (Tokyo exchange). The stock market is not a measure of the economy. Stocks can do poorly in times of economic growth and well in recessions.

Wine Pairing: try a Semillon with mussels and then a Syrah with lamb. They're both very different pairings. Remember this next time you're about to confuse the economy with the market!